Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.257111 0.312544 0.380190 0.469875 0.587260 0.737954 0.949823
2025-04-27 0.158806 0.209593 0.278472 0.381266 0.535384 0.765861 1.153144
2025-05-04 0.109996 0.155051 0.221663 0.331614 0.517690 0.838898 1.484531
2025-05-11 0.078827 0.117239 0.178240 0.288036 0.495107 0.904159 1.888306
2025-05-18 0.057195 0.088789 0.141962 0.244841 0.457935 0.933542 2.294708
2025-05-25 0.042727 0.068760 0.114790 0.209642 0.423399 0.958346 2.779003
2025-06-01 0.034448 0.057533 0.100506 0.195233 0.429504 1.098351 3.917215
2025-06-08 0.028457 0.049164 0.089588 0.184558 0.441758 1.282024 5.770368
2025-06-15 0.024169 0.043124 0.081861 0.178770 0.466631 1.552696 9.207594
2025-06-22 0.020800 0.038221 0.075364 0.173958 0.494425 1.895800 15.434751
2025-06-29 0.017622 0.033123 0.067271 0.162270 0.494510 2.142231 23.611940
2025-07-06 0.013991 0.026502 0.054379 0.133206 0.416144 1.885393 23.414968
2025-07-13 0.012200 0.023656 0.050068 0.128593 0.434260 2.275647 43.116303
2025-07-20 0.010971 0.021828 0.047840 0.129713 0.480284 3.020816 106.746520
2025-07-27 0.010030 0.020491 0.046561 0.133702 0.547704 4.270736 379.869571
2025-08-03 0.009078 0.018961 0.044430 0.134116 0.601783 5.779287 1723.938825
2025-08-10 0.008080 0.017160 0.041154 0.129085 0.622523 7.129136 9226.857405
2025-08-17 0.007179 0.015457 0.037800 0.122499 0.629102 8.474467 94334.776180
2025-08-24 0.006600 0.014477 0.036353 0.123213 0.691542 11.901931 NaN
2025-08-31 0.006096 0.013609 0.035052 0.124126 0.761911 17.144731 NaN
2025-09-07 0.005685 0.012919 0.034155 0.126619 0.856110 26.455784 NaN
2025-09-14 0.005308 0.012265 0.033229 0.128682 0.957038 41.800179 NaN
2025-09-21 0.004865 0.011366 0.031300 0.124843 0.992079 56.399334 NaN